Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $906,863$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{927,877.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 143.4)}}\) (asimptote \(927,877.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $90,309$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,349.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 124.8)}}\) (asimptote \(90,349.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,426$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,856,413$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,732,408.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 155.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,732,408.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $227,685$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,828.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,828.3\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,110,588$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $131,247$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,101.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(133,101.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,663$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,725.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,725.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,193$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,199$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,035.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 146.6)}}\) (asimptote \(95,035.5\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,652$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,725.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,725.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $53,421$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $228,366$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,457.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(215,457.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,084$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,207.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,207.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,559$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,553$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,137.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 196.5)}}\) (asimptote \(130,137.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,340$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,682.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 192.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,682.8\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,217$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $125,570$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,811.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.5)}}\) (asimptote \(127,811.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,232$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,713.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 144.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,713.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,926$ on 2020-10-28
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,320$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,087.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(104,087.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,682$ on 2020-10-28
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,498.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,498.2\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,886$ on 2020-10-28