Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Honduras
  • Canada
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $906,863$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{927,877.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 143.4)}}\) (asimptote \(927,877.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $90,309$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,349.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 124.8)}}\) (asimptote \(90,349.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,426$ on 2020-10-28

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,856,413$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,732,408.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 155.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,732,408.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $227,685$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{220,828.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 96.2)}}\) (asimptote \(220,828.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,110,588$ on 2020-10-28

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,247$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133,101.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 146.2)}}\) (asimptote \(133,101.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,663$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,725.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,725.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,193$ on 2020-10-28

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $95,199$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,035.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 146.6)}}\) (asimptote \(95,035.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,652$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,725.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,725.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $53,421$ on 2020-10-28

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $228,366$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215,457.9}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(215,457.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,084$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,207.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 56.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,207.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,559$ on 2020-10-28

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,553$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,137.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 196.5)}}\) (asimptote \(130,137.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,340$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,682.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 192.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,682.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,217$ on 2020-10-28

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $125,570$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,811.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.5)}}\) (asimptote \(127,811.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,232$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,713.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 144.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,713.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,926$ on 2020-10-28

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,320$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,087.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(104,087.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,682$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,498.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 116.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,498.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,886$ on 2020-10-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 71%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 50%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,925$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,456.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 126.7)}}\) (asimptote \(31,456.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $962$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{928.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 125.3)}}\) (asimptote \(928.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,381$ on 2020-10-28

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,594$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,579.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 181.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,579.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 180.0)}}\) (asimptote \(118.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,241$ on 2020-10-28